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Alternative Provision model

Accurately forecast and budget for Alternative Provision

Pupils in Alternative Provision have a right to good quality education and support provided by their local authority. For many children this support can be transformational and make a real difference to their progress as a student, to their future life outcomes and the quality of life – not only for themselves but their family as well.

Unfortunately, most authorities face multiple challenges when it comes to ensuring that only the right children are moved to Alternative Provision, and that they receive the most appropriate high-quality provision for their needs, that they enter AP for the right reasons and at the right time.

Our Alternative Provision (AP) model and supporting services has been designed to provide a granular insight into the likely shape and size of future AP cohorts and enable education provision planners in local authorities to have greater confidence and understanding of the likely impact of their planning when it comes to delivering high quality services to meet the demand. The model provides them with access to an effective, tried and tested capability to create customised, evidence-based projections of future demand and costs, that enable them to explore the impact of possible policy changes, in collaboration with stakeholders such as local schools.

The model uses historic AP data to generate a projection of future AP demand for coming years, broken down by the different types of referral and provision, enabling the local authority to plan AP service provision to meet demand, and to explore the likely capacity and cost impacts of changes in service configuration such as changes in length of the ‘standard’ fixed term AP stay. Consequently the local authority can be more confident that the needs of excluded children are met, so that they achieve the best academic outcomes possible.

Projections include both expected pupil numbers and costs of provision, to enable accurate budget planning. The model provides an evidence-based, independent view on expected AP demand that can be trusted by all stakeholders and it also enables them to explore the impact of different policy changes (such as reducing the duration of AP placements) on demand and cost, so that future service delivery and budgeting options can be compared.

We support interactive workshops with stakeholders (e.g. the local authority, schools and AP providers) to enable an informed discussion and effective planning for the future.

  • Meet needs

    Meet the needs of excluded children and enable them to achieve the best academic outcomes possible

  • Compare policy options

    Explore the impact of policy changes and compare your future service delivery and budgeting options

  • Project the future

    Use historic AP data to generate projection of future AP demand for coming years

  • Have robust numbers

    Develop evidence-based projections of your future demand and costs

what you get

  • set up and onboarding

    We help your analysts get started with extracting your data, and your leaders with defining the strategic scenarios that you will want to explore. This makes it easy to get going on your AP strategy, drawing on our experience of working with other authorities who are tackling similar challenges.

  • baseline projections

    We provide "baseline" demand and cost projections, as a set of detailed spreadsheets and visualisations, showing your expected 10 year picture if things stay on their current course - giving a realistic picture of where you are right now.

  • alternative scenarios

    As you come up with different scenarios of interest, we provide up to 25 further sets of spreadsheets and visualisations exploring the expected impact of your ideas. These can range from changes to stay length for fixed term exclusions, to possible alterations to the Fair Access Protocol to checks on how a rise in referral rates might affect your AP capacity.

  • presentations to stakeholders

    We will present and explain findings to your senior stakeholders up to three times during the year, to ensure they can understand the numbers and ask any questions they have about how they were produced and what they mean.

get in touch

Like what you see? Then speak to us about how we can work together with you, our products, and our team.

  • Email us